2026/27 16–19 in-year growth funding: simple explanation for school census users

The DfE has published the 2026/27 process for calculating 16–19 in-year growth funding.

The basic approach is broadly similar to 2025/26, but there is one important change: DfE has removed the previous uncertainty around affordability and has committed to funding growth calculated under the published methodology.

How the calculation works

For schools and academies, DfE compares:

Autumn 2026 census student numbers

minus

your 2026/27 funded student allocation

This establishes how many students you are above your allocation.

The growth thresholds

DfE then applies two thresholds:

There are also minimum and maximum limits on the thresholds:

• Lower threshold: 7.5% of allocation, with a minimum of 25 students and maximum of 100.
• Upper threshold: 15% of allocation, with a minimum of 50 students and maximum of 200.

A simple example

Imagine a school has a 2026/27 allocation of 500 students and the autumn 2026 census shows 600 students.

That is 100 students above allocation.

For 500 students:

• 7.5% = 37.5 students, so the lower threshold is 37.5
• 15% = 75 students, so the upper threshold is 75

The calculation would therefore be:

• First 37.5 students: not funded
• Next 37.5 students: funded at 100%
• Remaining 25 students: funded at 50%

The resulting number of growth-funded students is then used to calculate the additional funding.

What has changed from 2025/26?

For school census users, the actual calculation is largely unchanged.

The important changes are around certainty and timing.

1. More certainty that qualifying growth will be funded

In 2025/26, DfE said that the growth methodology was subject to affordability and that it might need to adjust the approach if national growth was higher than expected.

For 2026/27, DfE has said it will meet the costs of institutions calculated using the published methodology.

This gives schools greater certainty when planning for additional 16–19 students.

2. The methodology has been published earlier

DfE has published the approach before the start of the 2026/27 academic year.

This is intended to give schools greater confidence when recruiting additional students because they know in advance how their growth will be assessed.

3. The timing of the funding

The calculation is based on the autumn 2026 school census.

DfE expects schools to be notified of their growth funding by the end of April 2027, with payments starting from May 2027.

So the important point for schools is:

Additional students recruited in September 2026 do not generate an immediate increase in funding. The growth calculation takes place after the autumn census and the additional funding is paid later in the academic year.

What schools should watch carefully

Census accuracy is particularly important

Because the autumn census is used to establish the level of growth, schools need to make sure that their 16–19 census data is accurate and complete.

The growth calculation is based on the students recorded through the census, so errors or omissions could affect the amount of funding generated.

Not every additional student attracts funding

The policy is designed to support significant growth, rather than provide additional funding for every student above allocation.

The first part of the growth sits below the threshold and does not attract additional funding.

The key planning message

For schools, I would summarise the 2026/27 position as:

The calculation for school census users is broadly the same as 2025/26. Schools compare their autumn 2026 census numbers with their 2026/27 allocation, with growth above the 7.5% threshold eligible for funding. Growth between 7.5% and 15% is funded at 100%, while growth above 15% is funded at 50%. The significant change is that DfE has provided greater certainty that growth calculated under the published methodology will be funded.

In short: same basic growth calculation, but greater certainty that qualifying growth will be paid.